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Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are due to officially exit the West African ECOWAS bloc of nations this month, one year after announcing their withdrawal. The bloc hopes to persuade them to remain, but some analysts say growing anti-French sentiment in the region and Nigeria’s own recent dealings with France could frustrate negotiations.
In each of the three exiting nations, military officers seized power in recent years in the midst of jihadist insurgencies. The countries formed an alliance last year and accused ECOWAS of pandering to foreign influence while failing to secure member states’ security.
In December, ECOWAS announced a six-month grace period for the countries after a summit in the Nigerian capital to try to dissuade them from leaving the bloc.
Aminu Hayatu, a political science researcher at Bayero University in Kano, said Nigeria’s role at the center “in terms of leadership of ECOWAS is really in a dilemma, because at one point, it has to be able to prove to France that it is ready to diplomatically relate with France. This is very implicating for Nigeria because it has to do it in such a way that it doesn’t hurt the leadership position which it is occupying in ECOWAS.”
Comments by Macron
Resentment of the presence of French military forces has grown across West and Central Africa in recent years and soared again recently when French President Emmanuel Macron said some African leaders showed “ingratitude” toward French efforts to help fight jihadist insurgencies.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is the chair of ECOWAS, made a three-day visit to France in late November in search of investment opportunities for Nigeria. Some analysts said that visit could be misinterpreted and cause the juntas to be more resistant to the regional bloc.
In a Christmas Day interview, Niger’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, accused France of supporting militant groups in the Lake Chad region to undermine Niger’s security, allegedly with Nigeria’s knowledge.
Nigeria has dismissed the allegations as “baseless” and “false.”
Hayatu is worried about the trend. “It is really a great deal of concern, and that might exacerbate the already simmering tension in terms of the diplomatic relations between Nigeria and these countries,” he said. “It could only escalate the bitterness if Nigeria really doesn’t tread carefully in the way that it is romancing the French regime in this very volatile situation that many of these countries are in.”
But political affairs analyst Chris Kwaja said that “all member states of ECOWAS are sovereign entities. Nigeria has the right to go into diplomatic relations with any other country, as long as such relationships are not designed to undermine the sovereignty of any other country. No country should decide and define for Nigeria who the friends and enemies of Nigeria should be.”
Rotimi Olawale, an Abuja-based political affairs analyst, said the Sahel states could not survive long without their neighbors.
“Right now, they have strong support in their countries, [so] they will ride on that support,” Olawale said, “but I anticipate that as economic challenges pile up, insecurities very high, citizens will demand real solutions to local problems, and with that they need a lot of support from external stakeholders, including ECOWAS.”
As of now, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are expected to officially leave ECOWAS on January 29.
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Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are due to officially exit the West African ECOWAS bloc of nations this month, one year after announcing their withdrawal. The bloc hopes to persuade them to remain, but some analysts say growing anti-French sentiment in the region and Nigeria’s own recent dealings with France could frustrate negotiations.
In each of the three exiting nations, military officers seized power in recent years in the midst of jihadist insurgencies. The countries formed an alliance last year and accused ECOWAS of pandering to foreign influence while failing to secure member states’ security.
In December, ECOWAS announced a six-month grace period for the countries after a summit in the Nigerian capital to try to dissuade them from leaving the bloc.
Aminu Hayatu, a political science researcher at Bayero University in Kano, said Nigeria’s role at the center “in terms of leadership of ECOWAS is really in a dilemma, because at one point, it has to be able to prove to France that it is ready to diplomatically relate with France. This is very implicating for Nigeria because it has to do it in such a way that it doesn’t hurt the leadership position which it is occupying in ECOWAS.”
Comments by Macron
Resentment of the presence of French military forces has grown across West and Central Africa in recent years and soared again recently when French President Emmanuel Macron said some African leaders showed “ingratitude” toward French efforts to help fight jihadist insurgencies.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is the chair of ECOWAS, made a three-day visit to France in late November in search of investment opportunities for Nigeria. Some analysts said that visit could be misinterpreted and cause the juntas to be more resistant to the regional bloc.
In a Christmas Day interview, Niger’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, accused France of supporting militant groups in the Lake Chad region to undermine Niger’s security, allegedly with Nigeria’s knowledge.
Nigeria has dismissed the allegations as “baseless” and “false.”
Hayatu is worried about the trend. “It is really a great deal of concern, and that might exacerbate the already simmering tension in terms of the diplomatic relations between Nigeria and these countries,” he said. “It could only escalate the bitterness if Nigeria really doesn’t tread carefully in the way that it is romancing the French regime in this very volatile situation that many of these countries are in.”
But political affairs analyst Chris Kwaja said that “all member states of ECOWAS are sovereign entities. Nigeria has the right to go into diplomatic relations with any other country, as long as such relationships are not designed to undermine the sovereignty of any other country. No country should decide and define for Nigeria who the friends and enemies of Nigeria should be.”
Rotimi Olawale, an Abuja-based political affairs analyst, said the Sahel states could not survive long without their neighbors.
“Right now, they have strong support in their countries, [so] they will ride on that support,” Olawale said, “but I anticipate that as economic challenges pile up, insecurities very high, citizens will demand real solutions to local problems, and with that they need a lot of support from external stakeholders, including ECOWAS.”
As of now, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are expected to officially leave ECOWAS on January 29.
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