Economic Downturn Expected in Africa Due to Sudanese Conflict
The war in Sudan is likely to cause significant economic damage in neighboring countries, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Catherine Pattillo, the IMF’s deputy director for Africa, made the statement in an interview ahead of the publication of the IMF’s regional outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.
Regional Economic Impact
Pattillo noted that "a number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges… and then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth." The IMF’s report predicts that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.
South Sudan’s Situation Critical
For South Sudan, the situation has become particularly worrying following the loss in February of one of its main sources of income after an oil export pipeline was damaged in Sudan. The pipeline is crucial for transporting South Sudanese crude oil abroad, which is especially important given that oil accounts for around 90% of the landlocked country’s exports.
Conflict’s Devastating Consequences
The war in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, according to the United Nations, with more than 10.7 million people displaced across the country and a further 2.3 million fleeing to neighboring countries.
Food Insecurity Worsening
The conflict has also exacerbated food insecurity, with a famine declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher, in Darfur. Pattillo noted, "You could think of Sudan [and] also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth. Those are the internal conflicts."
External Factors Affecting Growth
At the same time, other external conflicts, such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, are also affecting the cost of food, fertilizer, and energy, she said. The IMF noted that rising protectionism is also having a negative impact on growth in Africa, translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: the United States, Europe, and China.
Growth Forecast
The economic slowdown in developed countries and China still represents a major challenge for African countries, the IMF noted, predicting growth in sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2% next year, slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
Conclusion
The ongoing conflict in Sudan is likely to have a devastating impact on the region’s economy, with neighboring countries also struggling with their own internal challenges. The situation is critical for South Sudan, with the loss of its main source of income and the exacerbation of food insecurity. As the situation continues to unfold, it is crucial that international efforts are made to support affected countries and mitigate the devastating consequences of this conflict.
FAQs
- What is the impact of the conflict in Sudan on neighboring countries?
- The conflict is likely to cause significant economic damage in neighboring countries, with the IMF predicting that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit.
- What are the causes of the conflict in Sudan?
- The conflict in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti.
- What is the forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa?
- The IMF predicts growth in sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2% next year, slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
- How will rising protectionism affect growth in Africa?
- Rising protectionism is having a negative impact on growth in Africa, translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: the United States, Europe, and China.
