MidEast Brinkmanship and the Quest for Precision
As tensions between Israel and Iran continue to rise, the region is on edge. The latest round of brinksmanship began last month when Israel blamed Hezbollah for a rocket that struck a soccer field and killed children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The Challenge of Responding to Israeli Strikes
Neither Hezbollah nor Iran has found a better way to respond to Israeli strikes in a way that could both warn Israel off another attack, yet not provoke an even bigger war that could be devastating for them.
"The Iranians keep dropping hints about striking a target with precision," said Mohammed Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of an independent regional website. "Precision and proportion is now key to how we look at this."
A Delicate Balance
Hezbollah, which has been branded a terrorist group by Washington and is the most powerful militia supported by Iran, would have been critical to any coordinated response. However, risking all-out war had a high political cost for Hezbollah: With Lebanon still reeling from a devastating economic crisis and a yearslong political vacuum, Hezbollah faces intense pressure from other segments of society not to drag the country deeper into crisis. Moreover, tens of thousands of Hezbollah’s own supporters in southern Lebanon have been driven from their homes by near-daily Israeli strikes.
The latest comments by Iranian leaders seem to hint at an impending, but probably targeted and limited, retaliation. In a recent gathering, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told students that a response "does not always mean taking up arms; rather, it means thinking correctly, speaking properly, understanding things accurately and striking the target with precision."
Tehran’s Calculations
Tehran’s main calculation is finding a response that does not risk pulling in the United States, whose warships have deployed around the region. "The Iranians got cold feet," said Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the former head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, which oversees Middle East operations. General McKenzie said that Iran would possibly retaliate by striking "a soft target" — one not heavily protected — such as an embassy or other facility in Europe, Africa, or South America.
And Iranian leaders are also likely to delay any response as long as talks are ongoing to broker a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, some U.S. officials said.
The Impact on the Regional Dynamics
Some regional diplomats argue that even as Hezbollah and Iran look weaker today, there are ways in which Iran and its allies have already imposed a heavier toll on Israel. By appearing to signal they have let the Gaza cease-fire negotiations take precedence — talks widely seen as being stymied by Mr. Netanyahu — they could find an opportunity to erode relations between Israel and its Western allies, diplomats warned. Like the Lebanese in the south, Israel’s own citizens, too, are unable to return home — and are growing increasingly frustrated with their government.
Conclusions
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East highlight the delicate balance of regional dynamics. As both sides eye each other warily, the desire for precision and proportion in response to provocation is crucial. The question is whether Iran and Hezbollah can find a response that achieves their goals without escalating into a devastating war.
FAQs
Q: What is the current situation in the Middle East?
A: The latest round of brinksmanship began when Israel blamed Hezbollah for a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Q: How has Hezbollah and Iran responded to Israeli strikes?
A: Both Hezbollah and Iran have not found a better way to respond to Israeli strikes in a way that could both warn Israel off another attack, yet not provoke an even bigger war.
Q: What is the significance of precision and proportion in responses?
A: Precision and proportion are key to how we look at response to provocation, as dropping hints about striking a target with precision can be a way to achieve objectives while avoiding escalation.
Q: What are Iran’s calculations in responding to Israeli strikes?
A: Tehran’s main calculation is finding a response that does not risk pulling in the United States, whose warships have deployed around the region.
Q: Will Iran and Hezbollah find a response that achieves their goals without escalating into a war?
A: The ongoing tensions highlight the delicate balance of regional dynamics, making it crucial for both sides to find a response that achieves their goals without escalating into a war.
